Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 8 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 5 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Iooften banned
db- · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
woMy · 3 games
Omega Esports
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 6 games
Grimstroke
Boomy · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bok · 5 games
Brewmaster
cml · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 4 games
Lion
cml · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
302 picks · 612 bans
Void Spirit
281 picks · 350 bans
Mars
239 picks · 425 bans
Earth Spirit
230 picks · 180 bans
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 375 bans
Rubick
194 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
193 picks · 601 bans
Phoenix
188 picks · 218 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:12
Army Geniuses 33%Omega Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverdb-
ViperTino-
MarsMamangDaya
InvokerMac
PugnawoMy
BeastmasterBok
Earth SpiritLym-
LeshracBoomy
54% · 31 game
Undyingcml
Game 2prediction missed38:21
Army Geniuses 37%Omega Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdb-
JuggernautTino-
MarsMamangDaya
Void SpiritMac
SlardarwoMy
EnigmaBok
Earth SpiritLym-
AlchemistBoomy
52% · 29 games
Crystal Maidencml
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 76%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2