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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Apes Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 11 games
36%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Varizh · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lym- · 8 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
29%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
29%

Team Apes Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 283 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
401 picks · 507 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
363 picks · 521 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 498 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
288 picks · 479 bans
51%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
256 picks · 476 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
251 picks · 338 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
247 picks · 101 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Team Apes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Apes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:34
Army Geniuses 49%Team Apes Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Apes Esports — the game was taken by Team Apes Esports in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAzur4
51% · 125 games44% · 31 game
Naga SirenJikroy
Naga Siren
Ursa
Ursadb-
49% · 89 games50% · 225 games
KunkkaMamangDaya
Kunkka
Slardar
SlardarwoMy
57% · 49 games43% · 102 games
Sand Kingdalul
Sand King
Io
IoNARMAN
56% · 142 games47% · 268 games
GrimstrokeLym-
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneVarizh
54% · 221 game
Game 2prediction missed34:6
Army Geniuses 47%Team Apes Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Apes Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 23:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdb-
54% · 97 games47% · 112 games
Phantom AssassinJikroy
Phantom Assassin
Razor
RazorAzur4
52% · 180 games43% · 167 games
Kunkkadalul
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierwoMy
53% · 167 games53% · 160 games
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Queen of Pain
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
51% · 129 games48% · 241 game
GrimstrokeLym-
Grimstroke
Clockwerk
ClockwerkVarizh
50% · 107 games
Game 3prediction missed37:4
Army Geniuses 47%Team Apes Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Apes Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerdb-
59% · 61 game45% · 90 games
Phantom AssassinJikroy
Phantom Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAzur4
50% · 297 games47% · 343 games
Marsdalul
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierwoMy
50% · 269 games46% · 254 games
PuckMamangDaya
Puck
Undying
UndyingVarizh
52% · 73 games52% · 190 games
GrimstrokeLym-
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
53% · 177 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Apes Esports · 54%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3