The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 10 games
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 10 games
Rubick
Jhocam · 8 games
Doomoften banned
db- · 7 games
Silencer
Varizh · 7 games
Tiny
Jhocam · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Varizh · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Jhocam · 6 games
Vision
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
466 picks · 499 bans
Rubick
455 picks · 214 bans
Batrider
396 picks · 662 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 605 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 703 bans
Timbersaw
329 picks · 762 bans
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 639 bans
Undying
312 picks · 522 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Vision
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:4
Army Geniuses 84%Vision 16%
The model gave 84% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 24:47.
Game 2prediction correct28:5
Army Geniuses 84%Vision 16%
The model gave 84% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 22:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 84%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2