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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fantastic Fivewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Muka · 4 games
25%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
441 picks · 193 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 574 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 877 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 323 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
320 picks · 233 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 394 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
283 picks · 391 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:43
AS Monaco Gambit 51%Fantastic Five 49%
The model gave 51% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 45:33.
Game 2prediction missed12:30
AS Monaco Gambit 51%Fantastic Five 49%
The model gave 51% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 35:18.
Game 3prediction missed49:40
AS Monaco Gambit 51%Fantastic Five 49%
The model gave 51% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 1:08:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 51%
Series resultFantastic Five 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3