ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ascent Esportswin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ccrychicloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ascent Esports
No games played over 6 months.
crychic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 518 bans
Clockwerk
370 picks · 356 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 447 bans
Luna
310 picks · 361 bans
Enchantress
299 picks · 569 bans
Dark Willow
270 picks · 143 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 349 bans
Batrider
259 picks · 243 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Ascent Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% crychic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ascent Esports 47%crychic 53%
The model gave 53% on crychic — the game was taken by Ascent Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritecrychic · 53%
Series resultAscent Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1