The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
iG Vitalityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 9 games
Phoenix
RedPanda · 8 games
Marcioften banned
生死 · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 5 games
Silencer
RedPanda · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 4 games
iG Vitality
Jakiro
Sj · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ash · 10 games
Techiesoften banned
Hara · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Tzy · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Silencer
Ponyo · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
598 picks · 625 bans
Rubick
473 picks · 251 bans
Batrider
428 picks · 833 bans
Spirit Breaker
380 picks · 384 bans
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 738 bans
Doom
347 picks · 767 bans
Timbersaw
346 picks · 845 bans
Morphling
342 picks · 716 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:15
Aster.Aries 47%iG Vitality 53%
The model gave 53% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 27:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterUlu
Faceless Voidukiyo
Ember SpiritXwy
LeshracButterflyEffect
Dark Seer生死
GrimstrokePonyo
PhoenixRedPanda
Tuskomoxiloyi
Earth Spiritmercy
Game 2prediction correct
Aster.Aries 54%iG Vitality 46%
The model gave 54% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 54%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2