The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Brewmastersignature
TK · 11 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
RedPanda · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Xwy · 8 games
Razoroften banned
Xwy · 7 games
Tiny
TK · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
Ulu · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
Xwy · 6 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
719 picks · 570 bans
Puck
499 picks · 1023 bans
Dawnbreaker
497 picks · 657 bans
Marci
484 picks · 809 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 427 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 395 bans
Razor
303 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:29
Aster.Aries 37%Invictus Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 35:44.
Game 2prediction missed28:26
Aster.Aries 37%Invictus Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 38:47.
Game 3prediction correct27:43
Aster.Aries 37%Invictus Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 57:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 63%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3