?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:1
LBZSwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
13%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
Fantasy · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 6 games
50%

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CatYou · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 13 games
46%
Mars
Marssignature
Irving · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
CatYou · 7 games
29%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
17%
Lion
Lion
CatYou · 6 games
50%
Sand King
Sand King
Irving · 6 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 1010 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 194 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 601 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
365 picks · 367 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
310 picks · 495 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
307 picks · 675 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
299 picks · 227 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
282 picks · 160 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% LBZS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:41
Aster.Aries 60%LBZS 40%
The model gave 60% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by LBZS in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerUlu
50% · 18 games45% · 48 games
MedusaMS
Medusa
Timbersaw
Timbersaw生死
52% · 26 games41% · 58 games
Sand KingIrving
Sand King
Mars
Marsphoenix
49% · 79 games46% · 14 games
Skywrath MageCatYou
Skywrath Mage
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFantasy
59% · 63 games53% · 66 games
Elder Titanxiaofu
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 66%
Series resultLBZS 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1