Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlas Burdenloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MoneyMakerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlas Burden
Enchantress
Panto · 2 games
Alchemist
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 1 game
Dark Willow
OneJey · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
nicky`cool · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
OneJey · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 1 game
MoneyMakers
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 9 games
Techies
Bignum · 9 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
Rubick
Bignum · 8 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Bignum · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Egor · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 301 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
231 picks · 246 bans
Treant Protector
213 picks · 462 bans
Phoenix
207 picks · 275 bans
Pangolier
202 picks · 411 bans
Nature's Prophet
180 picks · 466 bans
Earth Spirit
179 picks · 279 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Atlas Burden
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:34
Atlas Burden 51%MoneyMakers 49%
The model gave 51% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Templar AssassinLukas
Sniperiseedeadpeople
PuckEgor
GrimstrokeHellscream
Nature's ProphetCeMaTheSlayeR
TuskPanto
PugnaBignum
Game 2prediction missed22:37
Atlas Burden 52%MoneyMakers 48%
The model gave 52% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightiseedeadpeople
MuertaLukas
MagnusCloud
InvokerEgor
Dark WillowHellscream
TuskBignum
Nature's ProphetPanto
AbaddonCeMaTheSlayeR
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlas Burden · 54%
Series resultMoneyMakers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2