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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 29 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 29 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 24 games
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 20 games
60%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
73%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 30 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 29 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
48%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
52%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 938 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 437 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 644 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 650 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
444 picks · 956 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 653 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 532 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
380 picks · 234 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% 1w Team
Head-to-head8 – 0
Model total84% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
Aurora Gaming 72%1w Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
50% · 131 game58% · 156 games
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
52% · 429 games39% · 14 games
NecrophosSquad1x
Necrophos
Largo
LargoWs
60% · 42 games47% · 221 game
Slardarмистер мораль
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockKaori
43% · 410 games55% · 244 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
45% · 145 games48% · 522 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct31:34
Aurora Gaming 73%1w Team 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
58% · 496 games54% · 331 game
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Gyrocopter
Viper
ViperLorenof
46% · 85 games46% · 75 games
SniperSquad1x
Sniper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWs
47% · 144 games51% · 255 games
Slardarмистер мораль
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 191 game46% · 462 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Tiny
TinyMira
51% · 464 games51% · 257 games
DisruptorRein
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct23:5
Aurora Gaming 71%1w Team 29%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 28:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
56% · 351 game51% · 128 games
Morphlingssnovv1
Morphling
Largo
LargoWs
50% · 32 games43% · 68 games
SniperSquad1x
Sniper
Viper
ViperLorenof
55% · 92 games50% · 298 games
Marsмистер мораль
Mars
Tiny
TinyMira
50% · 383 games51% · 165 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Dazzle
DazzleKaori
47% · 153 games45% · 352 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 84%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3