DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Gaimin Gladiators
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 20 games
Muerta
tOfu · 19 games
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 18 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 14 games
Sven
dyrachyo · 14 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Seleri · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 337 bans
Vengeful Spirit
330 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 472 bans
Mars
287 picks · 391 bans
Techies
275 picks · 189 bans
Pangolier
272 picks · 401 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 147 bans
Tiny
263 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:26
Aurora Gaming 21%Gaimin Gladiators 79%
The model gave 79% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 47:20.
Game 2prediction correct12:22
Aurora Gaming 21%Gaimin Gladiators 79%
The model gave 79% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 79%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2