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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 49 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 28 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 27 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kaori · 26 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 26 games
73%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 21 game
62%

GamerLegion

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 24 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Speeed · 23 games
74%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bignum · 20 games
35%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 19 games
42%
Kez
Kezoften banned
RCY · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
491 picks · 295 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
374 picks · 166 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
364 picks · 161 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 483 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 308 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
296 picks · 274 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 476 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 369 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:22
Aurora Gaming 68%GamerLegion 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
49% · 70 games48% · 116 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
53% · 84 games50% · 75 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Slark
SlarkStojkov
56% · 41 game50% · 191 game
Void SpiritRCY
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
52% · 507 games42% · 289 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKaori
57% · 182 games44% · 213 games
MiranaSpeeed
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct36:28
Aurora Gaming 68%GamerLegion 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 51:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosWs
50% · 83 games46% · 171 game
Nature's ProphetTimado
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinySkiter
47% · 394 games55% · 250 games
LargoRCY
Largo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
47% · 307 games45% · 191 game
DoomFayde
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
60% · 195 games52% · 318 games
WindrangerBignum
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
50% · 86 games45% · 135 games
DazzleSpeeed
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 80%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2