PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
MOUZ
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 27 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 25 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 22 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 22 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 16 games
Sven
Ulnit · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
478 picks · 210 bans
Tiny
433 picks · 607 bans
Batrider
392 picks · 738 bans
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 531 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 156 bans
Gyrocopter
361 picks · 305 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 703 bans
Mars
331 picks · 544 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:5
Aurora Gaming 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:27.
Game 2prediction missed27:7
Aurora Gaming 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:05.
Game 3prediction missed43:22
Aurora Gaming 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 54:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3