FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO5
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 3:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Spiritloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 28 games
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 24 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 24 games
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 23 games
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 20 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 18 games
Team Spirit
Tusksignature
rue · 23 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 16 games
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 16 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
588 picks · 924 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 416 bans
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 655 bans
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 635 bans
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 936 bans
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 644 bans
Mars
383 picks · 528 bans
Warlock
371 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:17
Aurora Gaming 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenNightfall
LunaYatoro
TimbersawWs
Void SpiritMirele
PuckLorenof
SlardarCollapse
Dark WillowMira
Tuskrue
WarlockKaori
Shadow DemonPanto
Game 2prediction correct23:35
Aurora Gaming 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawWs
GyrocopterYatoro
Ember SpiritLorenof
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
OmniknightNightfall
Dragon KnightMirele
JakiroKaori
Dark Willowrue
Shadow ShamanMira
ClockwerkPanto
Game 3prediction correct20:22
Aurora Gaming 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNightfall
MorphlingYatoro
PuckLorenof
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
LargoWs
ViperMirele
HoodwinkMira
Nyx Assassinrue
WarlockKaori
Shadow DemonPanto
Game 4prediction missed43:29
Aurora Gaming 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 50:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ViperLorenof
KezYatoro
WindrangerNightfall
PuckMirele
LargoWs
MarsCollapse
Shadow ShamanKaori
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Nyx AssassinMira
Tuskrue
Game 5prediction missed30:4
Aurora Gaming 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNightfall
MedusaYatoro
Storm SpiritLorenof
Dragon KnightMirele
LargoWs
TimbersawCollapse
PhoenixKaori
MiranaPanto
HoodwinkMira
Shadow Demonrue
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultAurora Gaming 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5