?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Yandexwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 28 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 28 games
46%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 26 games
50%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 24 games
67%

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 17 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 15 games
87%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 15 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 14 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Malady · 13 games
69%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 12 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 12 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
677 picks · 327 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 584 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
441 picks · 228 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1163 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 651 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 256 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 156 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 400 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Team Yandex
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:30
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Yandex 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:00:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
50% · 105 games56% · 199 games
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
51% · 318 games50% · 182 games
SvenWatson
Sven
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 243 games53% · 112 games
AxeNoticed
Axe
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
50% · 157 games45% · 302 games
HoodwinkSaksa
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
50% · 204 games51% · 232 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed7:31
Aurora Gaming 51%Team Yandex 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNightfall
46% · 82 games54% · 192 games
Nature's ProphetWatson
Nature's Prophet
Underlord
UnderlordTORONTOTOKYO
42% · 66 games55% · 82 games
Night StalkerNoticed
Night Stalker
Puck
PuckMikoto
48% · 244 games44% · 126 games
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Slardar
Chen
ChenOli
59% · 137 games49% · 200 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
51% · 165 games50% · 94 games
Bounty HunterSaksa
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction missed13:21
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Yandex 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
48% · 493 games46% · 343 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 135 games62% · 359 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
47% · 564 games48% · 420 games
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 333 games48% · 413 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Pugna
PugnaOli
54% · 277 games49% · 267 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 51%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3