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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Yandexwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 48 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 28 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 27 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 27 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 26 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 23 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
50%

Team Yandex

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 17 games
88%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 16 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
DM · 14 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 14 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
Watson · 14 games
79%
Mirana
Mirana
Saksa · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
500 picks · 297 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
382 picks · 168 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
370 picks · 164 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 491 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 309 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
300 picks · 283 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 483 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
274 picks · 363 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total63% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:16
Aurora Gaming 42%Team Yandex 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
49% · 201 game46% · 170 games
Templar AssassinWatson
Templar Assassin
Lycan
LycanWs
45% · 84 games46% · 214 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
50% · 411 games60% · 409 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Warlock
WarlockKaori
52% · 283 games49% · 151 game
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMira
60% · 57 games43% · 92 games
TechiesMalady
Techies
Game 2prediction correct9:32
Aurora Gaming 43%Team Yandex 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 25:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanWs
46% · 51 game61% · 97 games
Naga SirenWatson
Naga Siren
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSkiter
47% · 53 games58% · 101 game
HuskarATF
Huskar
Snapfire
SnapfireStojkov
45% · 141 game60% · 37 games
IoChira JUNIOR
Io
Warlock
WarlockKaori
44% · 95 games45% · 196 games
Dark WillowSaksa
Dark Willow
Windranger
WindrangerMira
44% · 155 games56% · 64 games
Witch DoctorMalady
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction correct4:26
Aurora Gaming 39%Team Yandex 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 18:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaStojkov
56% · 115 games52% · 219 games
KezWatson
Kez
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
49% · 96 games49% · 259 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
48% · 104 games49% · 180 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Lion
LionMira
48% · 147 games43% · 287 games
Dark WillowSaksa
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKaori
51% · 648 games57% · 165 games
Winter WyvernMalady
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 63%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3