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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 52 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 46 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 46 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 42 games
76%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 41 game
66%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 34 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
72%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 32 games
59%

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 28 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 27 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 21 game
76%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 20 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
37%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 19 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
672 picks · 831 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
583 picks · 600 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
479 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 418 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1093 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 696 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1007 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 628 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total68% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:15
Aurora Gaming 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNightfall
44% · 329 games53% · 167 games
KezAme
Kez
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
50% · 355 games52% · 649 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Mars
MarsWs
47% · 324 games48% · 189 games
KunkkaXxs
Kunkka
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
43% · 99 games52% · 335 games
Shadow Shamanfy
Shadow Shaman
Warlock
WarlockKaori
48% · 340 games62% · 107 games
Treant ProtectorxNova
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct33:8
Aurora Gaming 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNightfall
48% · 162 games51% · 344 games
Shadow FiendAme
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
51% · 474 games50% · 251 game
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Primal Beast
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
49% · 492 games50% · 395 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
48% · 690 games52% · 562 games
Shadow Demonfy
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
52% · 418 games48% · 684 games
TuskxNova
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 68%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2