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BLAST Slam VII · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 63 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 56 games
66%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 54 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 47 games
72%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 41 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nightfall · 37 games
62%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 30 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 30 games
47%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 26 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
563 picks · 348 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 567 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
455 picks · 238 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 368 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 528 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
329 picks · 863 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
320 picks · 804 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
310 picks · 267 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total78% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
Aurora Gaming 67%Xtreme Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNightfall
53% · 205 games45% · 540 games
TinyAme
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
53% · 579 games49% · 229 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Axe
AxeWs
50% · 242 games45% · 524 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKaori
51% · 514 games59% · 146 games
Keeper of the Lightfy
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMira
50% · 208 games46% · 309 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 78%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1