Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
AVULUS staffloss 0:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aurora Staffwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS staff
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 654 bans
Phoenix
497 picks · 796 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 480 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 553 bans
Muerta
422 picks · 362 bans
Magnus
417 picks · 1007 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 763 bans
Bristleback
388 picks · 911 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% AVULUS staff
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Aurora Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
AVULUS staff 39%Aurora Staff 61%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Staff — the game was taken by Aurora Staff.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Staff · 61%
Series resultAurora Staff 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1