PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DKDrago kingsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
No games played over 6 months.
Drago kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
407 picks · 443 bans
Rubick
404 picks · 337 bans
Weaver
383 picks · 821 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 880 bans
Phoenix
357 picks · 723 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
327 picks · 491 bans
Dark Seer
293 picks · 670 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
AVULUS 81%Drago kings 19%
The model gave 81% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS.
Game 2prediction missed
AVULUS 81%Drago kings 19%
The model gave 81% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Drago kings.
Game 3prediction correct
AVULUS 81%Drago kings 19%
The model gave 81% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 81%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3