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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 37 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 36 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 35 games
66%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 28 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 28 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 24 games
71%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 23 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 20 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 20 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 17 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 369 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 544 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
372 picks · 473 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 192 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 578 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
355 picks · 392 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 585 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
341 picks · 848 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:47
AVULUS 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
54% · 405 games46% · 365 games
GyrocopterMiracle-
Gyrocopter
Lycan
LycanXibbe
47% · 31 game52% · 232 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
57% · 194 games47% · 205 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyEkki
51% · 490 games52% · 65 games
IoGH
Io
Lich
LichSoNNeikO
52% · 107 games42% · 360 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct43:19
AVULUS 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanXibbe
56% · 75 games48% · 41 game
Drow RangerMiracle-
Drow Ranger
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
41% · 58 games49% · 216 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
50% · 223 games40% · 266 games
PangolierSumaiL
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaSoNNeikO
54% · 178 games54% · 170 games
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Lion
LionEkki
51% · 372 games54% · 213 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct37:23
AVULUS 58%Nigma Galaxy 42%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 55:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSmiling Knight
45% · 33 games45% · 155 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Lycan
LycanXibbe
61% · 48 games56% · 104 games
Templar AssassinMiracle-
Templar Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
49% · 159 games52% · 272 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderEkki
43% · 481 game51% · 180 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
53% · 194 games48% · 204 games
LionOmaR
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 64%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3