?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 17 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
81%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 15 games
80%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Ekki · 15 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 13 games
77%

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Copy · 21 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 19 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Yuma · 19 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 18 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 290 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 436 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
326 picks · 252 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 536 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
294 picks · 278 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
292 picks · 468 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
291 picks · 800 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
290 picks · 412 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:5
AVULUS 49%nouns 51%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by AVULUS in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
42% · 80 games51% · 173 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Sniper
SniperStormstormer
49% · 87 games48% · 65 games
Queen of PainCopy
Queen of Pain
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
53% · 91 game49% · 125 games
BeastmasterGunnar
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
48% · 256 games54% · 208 games
HoodwinkLelis
Hoodwink
Lion
LionEkki
54% · 167 games49% · 110 games
Naga SirenFly
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct12:25
AVULUS 47%nouns 53%
The model gave 53% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 43:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
46% · 232 games57% · 133 games
AlchemistYuma
Alchemist
Viper
ViperStormstormer
55% · 33 games52% · 25 games
TinkerCopy
Tinker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
46% · 141 game48% · 265 games
PangolierGunnar
Pangolier
Sniper
SniperEkki
49% · 93 games49% · 41 game
Witch DoctorFly
Witch Doctor
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
49% · 228 games51% · 263 games
ClockwerkLelis
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct18:36
AVULUS 47%nouns 53%
The model gave 53% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 51:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckStormstormer
51% · 225 games44% · 228 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
47% · 75 games53% · 139 games
Monkey KingCopy
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
47% · 412 games48% · 259 games
HoodwinkLelis
Hoodwink
Enigma
EnigmaEkki
56% · 126 games49% · 350 games
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
49% · 236 games56% · 98 games
ChenFly
Chen
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 58%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3