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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 37 games
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 27 games
48%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 26 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 22 games
41%
Lion
Lion
Ekki · 22 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 21 game
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 17 games
65%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 14 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
471 picks · 468 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 569 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
335 picks · 153 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 579 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
281 picks · 526 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
268 picks · 496 bans
57%
Muerta
Muerta
267 picks · 149 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
266 picks · 575 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:25
AVULUS 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by AVULUS in 56:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
53% · 160 games45% · 159 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Puck
PuckMo13ei
50% · 211 games55% · 157 games
Sand KingDavai
Sand King
Tinker
TinkerFly
57% · 97 games44% · 101 game
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaXibbe
50% · 141 game46% · 215 games
Dragon KnightYopaj
Dragon Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamandEsire
55% · 77 games45% · 54 games
SlarkHellscream
Slark
Game 2prediction correct10:20
AVULUS 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 24:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMo13ei
54% · 170 games45% · 108 games
UrsaTimado
Ursa
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
47% · 105 games50% · 223 games
Storm SpiritYopaj
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaXibbe
43% · 92 games50% · 249 games
Sand KingDavai
Sand King
Ringmaster
RingmasterdEsire
51% · 124 games56% · 122 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroFly
47% · 296 games55% · 85 games
Shadow ShamanSkem
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2