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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 34 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 27 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 26 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 21 game
48%

Team Secret

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 9 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 8 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 7 games
43%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 7 games
57%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 6 games
17%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 655 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
447 picks · 519 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 564 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
371 picks · 190 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
344 picks · 382 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
326 picks · 246 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
322 picks · 425 bans
54%
Invoker
Invoker
320 picks · 896 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 39%
Hero pool strength60% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:30
AVULUS 66%Team Secret 34%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 49:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperStormstormer
48% · 81 game56% · 122 games
WeaverParker
Weaver
Slark
SlarkSmiling Knight
53% · 40 games48% · 177 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
51% · 172 games49% · 134 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
52% · 92 games53% · 90 games
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Nyx Assassin
Tusk
TuskEkki
42% · 194 games50% · 56 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Game 2prediction missed10:38
AVULUS 66%Team Secret 34%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Team Secret in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
53% · 143 games49% · 180 games
Faceless VoidParker
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
47% · 206 games48% · 113 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStormstormer
48% · 100 games50% · 233 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
57% · 68 games43% · 63 games
Bounty HunterKyzko
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
52% · 155 games53% · 83 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct39:13
AVULUS 66%Team Secret 34%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
51% · 267 games47% · 223 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Razor
RazorSmiling Knight
47% · 235 games48% · 295 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
57% · 223 games46% · 173 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinEkki
57% · 149 games46% · 161 game
Shadow DemonKyzko
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
49% · 208 games52% · 230 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 76%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3