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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 32 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 27 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 24 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 22 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 21 game
71%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 24 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 23 games
52%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 23 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 669 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 496 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 538 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
330 picks · 437 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
328 picks · 349 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 596 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 557 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:28
AVULUS 41%Team Spirit 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
50% · 132 games49% · 149 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
55% · 160 games54% · 146 games
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
43% · 202 games55% · 176 games
MagnusMalik
Magnus
Lion
LionEkki
48% · 312 games50% · 293 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
46% · 174 games50% · 216 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct12:35
AVULUS 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
42% · 292 games53% · 150 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
46% · 175 games51% · 305 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
48% · 184 games56% · 125 games
EnigmaMalik
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinEkki
55% · 93 games48% · 338 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
47% · 283 games55% · 109 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2