PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:3series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:3
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Luna
lou · 24 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 22 games
Lion
fy · 21 game
Techiessignature
天命 · 21 game
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
Tinysignature
fy · 20 games
Rubicksignature
天命 · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
fy · 17 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 733 bans
Mars
428 picks · 687 bans
Techies
425 picks · 338 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 538 bans
Lion
409 picks · 355 bans
Batrider
408 picks · 891 bans
Crystal Maiden
390 picks · 174 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 185 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:41
Azure Ray 68%G2 Invictus Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 1:06:08.
Game 2prediction missed23:29
Azure Ray 68%G2 Invictus Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 43:56.
Game 3prediction correct30:15
Azure Ray 68%G2 Invictus Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 53:08.
Game 4prediction missed24:30
Azure Ray 68%G2 Invictus Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 1:05:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 68%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4