PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Tinysignature
fy · 28 games
Lion
fy · 27 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 26 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 24 games
Lunaoften banned
lou · 21 game
Zeussignature
Ori · 21 game
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 214 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 623 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 734 bans
Rubick
394 picks · 158 bans
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 544 bans
Gyrocopter
382 picks · 326 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 736 bans
Mars
337 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Azure Ray
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total61% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:12
Azure Ray 61%G2 Invictus Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:56.
Game 2prediction missed23:39
Azure Ray 61%G2 Invictus Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 50:42.
Game 3prediction missed15:30
Azure Ray 61%G2 Invictus Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 45:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 61%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3