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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 34 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 29 games
66%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 28 games
57%
Lion
Lion
fy · 27 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
lou · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 19 games
42%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 28 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 640 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 371 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 434 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 522 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 406 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
298 picks · 563 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
297 picks · 112 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 37%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:24
Azure Ray 45%Heroic 55%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverlou
42% · 115 games52% · 67 games
Chaos KnightK1
Chaos Knight
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerOri
59% · 20 games56% · 23 games
Shadow Fiend4nalog
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
SlardarFaith_bian
51% · 63 games56% · 40 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Pudge
Pudgefy
53% · 36 games47% · 76 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Warlock
Warlock天命
41% · 12 games49% · 40 games
Spirit BreakerKJ
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct23:33
Azure Ray 46%Heroic 54%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
48% · 294 games52% · 66 games
Chaos KnightK1
Chaos Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOri
42% · 41 game52% · 205 games
Tiny4nalog
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireFaith_bian
41% · 110 games60% · 110 games
BrewmasterDavai
Brewmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerfy
46% · 127 games53% · 130 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Venomancer
Venomancer天命
45% · 61 game61% · 122 games
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 60%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2