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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Lion
Lion
fy · 24 games
54%
Luna
Luna
lou · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
61%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 21 game
76%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 19 games
74%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 17 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 776 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
467 picks · 941 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 613 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
447 picks · 339 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
441 picks · 694 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
437 picks · 200 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
431 picks · 733 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
Azure Ray 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by OG in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalou
52% · 162 games50% · 269 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierOri
51% · 402 games53% · 140 games
Death Prophetbzm
Death Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawFaith_bian
50% · 287 games51% · 307 games
Primal BeastWisper
Primal Beast
Tiny
Tinyfy
52% · 286 games49% · 132 games
ChenCeb
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden天命
51% · 303 games42% · 592 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct36:12
Azure Ray 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 48:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorFaith_bian
52% · 107 games41% · 28 games
Drow RangerTimado
Drow Ranger
Leshrac
LeshracOri
51% · 106 games47% · 153 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
43% · 64 games55% · 142 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Lion
Lionfy
53% · 217 games45% · 57 games
ZeusAri
Zeus
Elder Titan
Elder Titan天命
59% · 63 games47% · 177 games
Shadow DemonCeb
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2