Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EXTREMUMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
5up · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 1 game
Disruptor
Duster · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 1 game
Pangolier
5up · 1 game
EXTREMUM
Bounty Hunter
Chuvash · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 2 games
Alchemist
Nefrit · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
G · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Shachlo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
57 picks · 113 bans
Puck
47 picks · 127 bans
Earth Spirit
44 picks · 36 bans
Void Spirit
41 picks · 68 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 69 bans
Phoenix
35 picks · 43 bans
Undying
32 picks · 57 bans
Mirana
31 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:24
B8 Esports 48%EXTREMUM 52%
The model gave 52% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinRdO
AlchemistNefrit
PuckDendi
ViperShachlo
Skywrath Mage5up
Ember Spiritmellojul
TidehunterDuster
Shadow ShamanChuvash
little data
Witch DoctorG
Game 2prediction correct21:39
B8 Esports 48%EXTREMUM 52%
The model gave 52% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 1:07:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenRdO
Void Spiritmellojul
PuckDendi
JuggernautNefrit
Rubick5up
Night StalkerShachlo
TidehunterDuster
Shadow ShamanChuvash
little data
Witch DoctorG
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 52%
Series resultEXTREMUM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2