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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Khanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 24 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 24 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 13 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Watson · 10 games
50%

Khan

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
goddam · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
layme · 4 games
75%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
323 picks · 175 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
279 picks · 98 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
270 picks · 532 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
270 picks · 406 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
262 picks · 367 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
238 picks · 248 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
231 picks · 331 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
211 picks · 237 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Khan
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:36
B8 Esports 56%Khan 44%
The model gave 56% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 53:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkWatson
46% · 49 games46% · 55 games
Bloodseekerlayme
Bloodseeker
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinDendi
55% · 86 games54% · 113 games
InvokerDodren
Invoker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLimitless
58% · 74 games47% · 103 games
TidehunterpJonn
Tidehunter
Lina
Lina[T]SA
51% · 158 games43% · 3 games
Dawnbreakerantoha
Dawnbreaker
41% · 93 games
Earth Spiritgoddam
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct42:31
B8 Esports 55%Khan 45%
The model gave 55% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaDendi
53% · 128 games42% · 46 games
Spectrelayme
Spectre
Monkey King
Monkey KingWatson
49% · 131 game43% · 200 games
MarspJonn
Mars
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerLimitless
54% · 93 games46% · 117 games
Storm SpiritDodren
Storm Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon[T]SA
56% · 93 games41% · 21 game
Skywrath Magegoddam
Skywrath Mage
60% · 61 game
Baneantoha
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 57%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2