Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
Rubick
MoOz · 10 games
Disruptor
Lodine · 7 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Tinysignature
Dendi · 7 games
Linasignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Funn1k · 5 games
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 17 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 8 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
YamSun · 8 games
Iosignature
Husky · 8 games
Rikioften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
773 picks · 593 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 967 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 689 bans
Undying
399 picks · 592 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 209 bans
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 910 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total79% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
B8 Esports 32%nouns 68%
The model gave 68% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistStoneBank
TimbersawGunnar
Ember SpiritDendi
UrsaYamSun
MagnusFunn1k
Witch DoctorMoo
RubickCTOMAHEH1
VenomancerHusky
Crystal MaidenLodine
Bounty HunterLelis
Game 2prediction correct8:33
B8 Esports 32%nouns 68%
The model gave 68% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaStoneBank
TimbersawGunnar
DoomFunn1k
VisageMoo
PangolierDendi
Monkey KingYamSun
RubickCTOMAHEH1
EnchantressHusky
Crystal MaidenLodine
Earth SpiritLelis
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 79%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2