Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwerty44loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 20 games
Void Spiritsignature
Dendi · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 11 games
Linasignature
[T]SA · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 10 games
qwerty44
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 10 games
Bane
Fezor · 5 games
Disruptor
Fezor · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
348 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
289 picks · 105 bans
Mars
265 picks · 406 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 352 bans
Lina
256 picks · 513 bans
Luna
233 picks · 329 bans
Shadow Demon
227 picks · 236 bans
Nyx Assassin
222 picks · 470 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 23%
Hero pool strength66% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:20
B8 Esports 66%qwerty44 34%
The model gave 66% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainDendi
WeaverKom4rt
SniperWatson
TinyUSHUSHUSH
BeastmasterLimitless
EnchantressFezor
Lina[T]SA
Game 2prediction correct28:24
B8 Esports 69%qwerty44 31%
The model gave 69% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterWatson
SvenKom4rt
Sand KingDendi
WindrangerUSHUSHUSH
SlardarLimitless
DisruptorFezor
Io[T]SA
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 78%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2