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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 23 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 18 games
39%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 16 games
44%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Mary_y · 14 games
57%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
64%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 26 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 16 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 14 games
21%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
ряф^^ · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 12 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 604 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
391 picks · 737 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 531 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
380 picks · 156 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 303 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 702 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 544 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:23
B8 Esports 48%SIBE Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerrincyq
46% · 96 games57% · 32 games
Bristlebackselfhate
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDendi
49% · 165 games46% · 218 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Enigma
Enigmaegxrdemxn
64% · 79 games52% · 361 game
Batridersunset
Batrider
Rubick
RubickCTOMAHEH1
42% · 235 games51% · 181 game
GrimstrokeSOhY
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMary_y
48% · 217 games
Game 2prediction correct25:40
B8 Esports 48%SIBE Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 47:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDendi
56% · 71 game40% · 51 game
Zeusряф^^
Zeus
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightrincyq
64% · 21 game50% · 22 games
Pudgeselfhate
Pudge
Beastmaster
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
57% · 86 games47% · 82 games
Spirit Breakersunset
Spirit Breaker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCTOMAHEH1
55% · 100 games42% · 154 games
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Crystal Maiden
Bane
BaneMary_y
51% · 31 game
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 51%
Series resultSIBE Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2