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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 24 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 24 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Limitless · 13 games
38%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 11 games
55%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Davai · 11 games
45%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 33 games
67%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 29 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
hAze · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 372 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
260 picks · 318 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
247 picks · 556 bans
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
229 picks · 245 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
224 picks · 106 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
220 picks · 454 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 271 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
208 picks · 273 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 66%
Hero pool strength54% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total77% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
B8 Esports 35%V-Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 22:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerDendi
52% · 131 game43% · 101 game
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerv1olent-
49% · 57 games53% · 70 games
Nature's Prophetlaise
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMastery
61% · 105 games50% · 147 games
LinahAze
Lina
Monkey King
Monkey KingLagoona
49% · 148 games47% · 105 games
Earth SpiritArrOw
Earth Spirit
34% · 18 games
Jakiroantoha
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct8:45
B8 Esports 32%V-Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 26:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDendi
54% · 107 gameslittle data
Lone DruidTA2000
Lone Druid
Kunkka
Kunkkav1olent-
54% · 71 game53% · 130 games
InvokerhAze
Invoker
Timbersaw
TimbersawMastery
50% · 103 games43% · 26 games
Outworld Destroyerlaise
Outworld Destroyer
Lion
LionLagoona
48% · 167 games50% · 4 games
PudgeArrOw
Pudge
47% · 288 games
Marsantoha
Mars
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 77%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2