FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Balaclavaswin 1:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CCaveMenloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balaclavas
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
Kunkka
Adzantick · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 1 game
CaveMen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
305 picks · 193 bans
Puck
296 picks · 657 bans
Dark Willow
263 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 608 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 514 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 680 bans
Marci
242 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% CaveMen
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Balaclavas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Balaclavas 57%CaveMen 43%
The model gave 57% on Balaclavas — the game was taken by Balaclavas.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalaclavas · 57%
Series resultBalaclavas 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1