Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bald Dynastyloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
StoRmwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bald Dynasty
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 3 games
Techies
Rein · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ряф^^ · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Axeoften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Dark Willow
ряф^^ · 1 game
StoRm
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
Tiny
RodjER · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 9 games
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
690 picks · 596 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
Doom
440 picks · 771 bans
Beastmaster
437 picks · 1085 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 1012 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 817 bans
Enchantress
372 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Bald Dynasty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Bald Dynasty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:34
Bald Dynasty 55%StoRm 45%
The model gave 55% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by StoRm in 32:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritряф^^
Doomemptiness
BeastmasterfortniteMan
Bloodseekerkrylat
Keeper of the LightRein
Winter Wyvernnicky`cool
51% · 39 games
Spirit BreakerOneJey
49% · 150 games
SilencerSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction missed17:36
Bald Dynasty 57%StoRm 43%
The model gave 57% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by StoRm in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierряф^^
Magnuskrylat
Spirit BreakerfortniteMan
Void Spiritnicky`cool
ClinkzRein
Beastmasteremptiness
57% · 71 game
TechiesOneJey
51% · 27 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteBald Dynasty · 59%
Series resultStoRm 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2