Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
King Of Kingswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
King Of Kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
431 picks · 262 bans
Queen of Pain
379 picks · 491 bans
Mars
354 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
344 picks · 485 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 482 bans
Death Prophet
262 picks · 404 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 175 bans
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 20%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:19
Balrogs 57%King Of Kings 43%
The model gave 57% on Balrogs — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 31:41.
Game 2prediction missed17:34
Balrogs 57%King Of Kings 43%
The model gave 57% on Balrogs — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 29:19.
Game 3prediction missed33:28
Balrogs 57%King Of Kings 43%
The model gave 57% on Balrogs — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 48:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 57%
Series resultKing Of Kings 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3