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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bammysoywin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bammysoy

Tusk
Tusk
Husky · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Moo · 6 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mo13ei · 6 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
BliNcc · 6 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Husky · 6 games
67%

GRIN esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
317 picks · 462 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
276 picks · 413 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 446 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
248 picks · 221 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
245 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
238 picks · 331 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
235 picks · 681 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
233 picks · 365 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Bammysoy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Bammysoy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
Bammysoy 54%GRIN esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSammyboy
57% · 111 games53% · 52 games
Troll WarlordDouble King
Troll Warlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMo13ei
45% · 53 games52% · 162 games
SnapfireDaaD-
Snapfire
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMoo
48% · 93 games52% · 173 games
Nature's ProphetBloody Nine
Nature's Prophet
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBliNcc
37% · 102 games
Chen
ChenZfreeK
53% · 28 games
Game 2prediction correct29:12
Bammysoy 54%GRIN esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 27:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMo13ei
47% · 37 games52% · 112 games
WindrangerDaaD-
Windranger
Clinkz
ClinkzSammyboy
49% · 20 games42% · 63 games
LifestealerDouble King
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
TidehunterMoo
47% · 50 games55% · 66 games
ChenBloody Nine
Chen
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetZfreeK
42% · 42 games
Batrider
BatriderBliNcc
63% · 92 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBammysoy · 61%
Series resultBammysoy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2