ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bammysoywin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bammysoy
Tusk
Husky · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
BliNcc · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
Moo · 4 games
Muertaoften banned
Sammyboy · 4 games
No Bounty Hunter
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Luna
kAAN · 2 games
Alchemist
kAAN · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Puckoften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 451 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 413 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 445 bans
Lion
239 picks · 218 bans
Vengeful Spirit
238 picks · 129 bans
Nature's Prophet
231 picks · 663 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 216 bans
Pangolier
228 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Bammysoy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Bammysoy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:2
Bammysoy 59%No Bounty Hunter 41%
The model gave 59% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 21:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMo13ei
SlarkkAAN
EnigmaMoo
AbaddonSammyboy
EnchantressZfreeK
Winter WyvernBliNcc
Game 2prediction correct47:8
Bammysoy 59%No Bounty Hunter 41%
The model gave 59% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMo13ei
MedusakAAN
JuggernautSammyboy
DoomMoo
EnchantressZfreeK
Winter WyvernBliNcc
Model check result
Model favoriteBammysoy · 70%
Series resultBammysoy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2