DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bammysoyloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bammysoy
Tusk
Husky · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
BliNcc · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
Moo · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 4 games
Muertaoften banned
Sammyboy · 4 games
nouns
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 8 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
YamSun · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 427 bans
Centaur Warrunner
250 picks · 347 bans
Phoenix
247 picks · 379 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Nature's Prophet
202 picks · 518 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
181 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:22
Bammysoy 31%nouns 69%
The model gave 69% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritSammyboy
TerrorbladeYuma
ViperMo13ei
Queen of PainStormstormer
DawnbreakerMoo
MarsGunnar
HoodwinkBliNcc
ChenFly
EnchantressHusky
LionLelis
Game 2prediction correct29:29
Bammysoy 30%nouns 70%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 41:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMo13ei
Anti-MageYuma
DoomMoo
InvokerStormstormer
SnapfireSammyboy
Nature's ProphetLelis
EnchantressHusky
MagnusGunnar
LionBliNcc
Crystal MaidenFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 82%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2