PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 10 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 8 games
Clockwerk
Solo · 7 games
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
653 picks · 476 bans
Puck
457 picks · 973 bans
Dawnbreaker
383 picks · 466 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 190 bans
Mars
342 picks · 562 bans
Marci
339 picks · 657 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 429 bans
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:34
beastcoast 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 49:21.
Game 2prediction missed38:11
beastcoast 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:11.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2