ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Shopify Rebellion
Undyingsignature
Fly · 26 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1000 picks · 707 bans
Tiny
631 picks · 465 bans
Disruptor
572 picks · 422 bans
Nature's Prophet
569 picks · 918 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 404 bans
Snapfire
523 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1212 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength61% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
beastcoast 32%Shopify Rebellion 68%
The model gave 68% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:44.
Game 2prediction correct39:7
beastcoast 32%Shopify Rebellion 68%
The model gave 68% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 16:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 68%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2