ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 47 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 27 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1004 picks · 710 bans
Tiny
629 picks · 462 bans
Disruptor
580 picks · 427 bans
Nature's Prophet
563 picks · 907 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
519 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1205 bans
Ember Spirit
500 picks · 1099 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 48%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:26
beastcoast 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:05.
Game 2prediction correct30:10
beastcoast 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2