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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 33 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 32 games
66%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 32 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 30 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 30 games
70%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 27 games
74%
Tiny
Tiny
gpK~ · 23 games
57%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 59 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 48 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 43 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 41 game
63%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 38 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 37 games
62%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 34 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 33 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
636 picks · 684 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
501 picks · 322 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
434 picks · 916 bans
52%
Doom
Doom
418 picks · 906 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 838 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 857 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
370 picks · 961 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total70% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
BETBOOM TEAM 30%Gaimin Gladiators 70%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM.
Game 2prediction missed30:15
BETBOOM TEAM 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
53% · 367 games51% · 213 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Puck
PuckgpK~
54% · 340 games50% · 328 games
DoomAce
Doom
Axe
AxePure~
51% · 65 games49% · 361 game
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesSave-
50% · 432 games52% · 388 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 686 games44% · 600 games
RubickSeleri
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct14:27
BETBOOM TEAM 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNightfall
47% · 109 games56% · 205 games
Medusadyrachyo
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
48% · 256 games48% · 157 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Tidehunter
TidehunterPure~
50% · 157 games56% · 144 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Techies
TechiesSave-
51% · 269 games48% · 332 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Batrider
BatriderTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 313 games50% · 266 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 70%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3