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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 42 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 31 game
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 28 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 25 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kataomi · 22 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
MieRo · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
55%

Natus Vincere Junior

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 28 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 27 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 27 games
59%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lionsignature
Daze · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 701 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 750 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
357 picks · 363 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
355 picks · 210 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 641 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
335 picks · 664 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 421 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 484 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:9
BETBOOM TEAM 66%Natus Vincere Junior 34%
The model gave 66% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
49% · 149 games43% · 346 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomMieRo
47% · 198 games56% · 276 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinygpK~
50% · 458 games51% · 105 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Ringmaster
RingmasterSave-
50% · 74 games55% · 96 games
Keeper of the LightZayac
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerKataomi
48% · 56 games53% · 112 games
Elder TitanRiddys
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct23:6
BETBOOM TEAM 69%Natus Vincere Junior 31%
The model gave 69% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 16:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
50% · 156 games50% · 136 games
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingPure~
51% · 103 games45% · 37 games
HuskarNiku
Huskar
Viper
VipergpK~
50% · 8 games51% · 119 games
Brewmasterpma
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKataomi
54% · 81 game51% · 66 games
RingmasterZayac
Ringmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSave-
50% · 65 games46% · 55 games
SilencerRiddys
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 80%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2