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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 24 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
gpK~ · 15 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 14 games
71%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
66%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 26 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
403 picks · 369 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
379 picks · 415 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 541 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 541 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 679 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 624 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
297 picks · 310 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 8
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:26
BETBOOM TEAM 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetgpK~
51% · 98 games48% · 77 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Doom
DoomMieRo
51% · 190 games44% · 118 games
LinaSkiter
Lina
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
50% · 185 games53% · 210 games
Primal BeastATF
Primal Beast
Mirana
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 121 game47% · 278 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Lion
LionSave-
49% · 140 games59% · 51 game
OmniknightSneyking
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct20:37
BETBOOM TEAM 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 59:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
50% · 82 games48% · 207 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomMieRo
55% · 263 games36% · 122 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
57% · 209 games51% · 220 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 123 games50% · 226 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireSave-
50% · 194 games47% · 96 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2