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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
46%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 21 game
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 21 game
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 20 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
81%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 20 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 18 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 214 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 630 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 735 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 159 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 555 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
386 picks · 334 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 747 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 551 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 34%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total70% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:14
BETBOOM TEAM 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
54% · 170 games48% · 104 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightgpK~
56% · 215 games53% · 205 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Magnus
MagnusMieRo
47% · 254 games44% · 180 games
KunkkaLarl
Kunkka
Mirana
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 176 games48% · 357 games
BatriderMiposhka
Batrider
Lion
LionSave-
47% · 259 games47% · 228 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed21:24
BETBOOM TEAM 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
48% · 173 games43% · 134 games
LifestealerYatoro
Lifestealer
Enigma
EnigmaMieRo
56% · 97 games48% · 203 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightgpK~
56% · 225 games50% · 314 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 279 games51% · 155 games
PhoenixMiposhka
Phoenix
Tiny
TinySave-
52% · 311 games47% · 279 games
LionMira
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2