PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 30 games
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pure~ · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
Muerta
Save- · 26 games
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 24 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 22 games
Team Spirit
Muertasignature
rue · 37 games
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 26 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 25 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
551 picks · 622 bans
Ringmaster
493 picks · 249 bans
Jakiro
446 picks · 395 bans
Shadow Shaman
425 picks · 470 bans
Terrorblade
411 picks · 849 bans
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 563 bans
Tusk
386 picks · 361 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:16
BETBOOM TEAM 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaPure~
BristlebackYatoro
PuckgpK~
Queen of PainLarl
LycanMieRo
SlardarCollapse
BatriderSave-
BaneMiposhka
OracleKataomi
Rikirue
Game 2prediction missed36:15
BETBOOM TEAM 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPure~
Templar AssassinYatoro
PuckgpK~
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Dark SeerMieRo
Ember SpiritLarl
MarciSave-
TuskMiposhka
DazzleKataomi
Shadow Shamanrue
Game 3prediction missed47:11
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerPure~
BristlebackYatoro
KunkkaMieRo
PuckLarl
Monkey KinggpK~
DawnbreakerCollapse
MuertaSave-
EnchantressMiposhka
BaneKataomi
Shadow Shamanrue
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3