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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Save- · 32 games
59%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 30 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 30 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 29 games
59%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kataomi · 27 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 24 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 23 games
57%

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 34 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 27 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
74%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
78%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
rue · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
542 picks · 569 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 227 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 422 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 487 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 866 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
327 picks · 324 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 884 bans
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
307 picks · 674 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 75%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:37
BETBOOM TEAM 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 52:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPure~
51% · 75 games53% · 186 games
Nature's ProphetYatoro
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckgpK~
48% · 255 games54% · 135 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMieRo
47% · 113 games53% · 224 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaSave-
53% · 109 games53% · 99 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Warlock
WarlockKataomi
43% · 188 games47% · 96 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct18:36
BETBOOM TEAM 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPure~
52% · 177 games57% · 175 games
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritgpK~
51% · 164 games50% · 384 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Axe
AxeMieRo
46% · 139 games50% · 150 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Muerta
MuertaSave-
47% · 265 games47% · 363 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskKataomi
45% · 429 games55% · 102 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2